Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 41,969
2 Louisiana 38,476
3 South Dakota 37,606
4 Mississippi 36,962
5 Alabama 35,206
6 Florida 35,153
7 Iowa 34,019
8 Tennessee 32,965
9 Arkansas 32,827
10 South Carolina 31,850
11 Arizona 31,756
12 Georgia 30,711
13 Wisconsin 30,168
14 Nebraska 30,018
15 Texas 29,966
16 Idaho 29,709
17 Utah 29,443
18 Nevada 29,340
19 Illinois 27,531
20 Oklahoma 27,116
21 Missouri 26,420
22 Rhode Island 26,139
23 New York 25,137
24 New Jersey 24,971
25 Kansas 24,961
26 Delaware 23,715
27 North Carolina 23,466
28 District of Columbia 23,195
29 Maryland 22,520
30 Indiana 22,281
31 California 22,229
32 Minnesota 21,785
33 Montana 21,352
34 Massachusetts 20,842
35 Kentucky 20,041
36 Virginia 19,464
37 Puerto Rico 17,939
38 Connecticut 17,622
39 New Mexico 17,544
40 Alaska 16,313
41 Michigan 15,954
42 Wyoming 15,593
43 Ohio 15,551
44 Colorado 14,899
45 Pennsylvania 14,589
46 Washington 13,447
47 West Virginia 11,204
48 Hawaii 10,017
49 Oregon 9,372
50 New Hampshire 7,129
51 Maine 4,418
52 Vermont 3,104

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,016
2 South Dakota 850
3 Montana 554
4 Nebraska 454
5 Utah 406
6 Wyoming 374
7 Minnesota 337
8 Illinois 332
9 Iowa 327
10 Missouri 326
11 Indiana 316
12 Alaska 303
13 Idaho 302
14 Oklahoma 291
15 New Mexico 290
16 Tennessee 281
17 Arkansas 280
18 Nevada 248
19 Wisconsin 238
20 Alabama 235
21 Kentucky 233
22 Kansas 218
23 North Carolina 215
24 Mississippi 209
25 Colorado 194
26 South Carolina 186
27 West Virginia 185
28 Delaware 182
29 Texas 177
30 Ohio 169
31 Florida 155
32 Georgia 146
33 Louisiana 137
34 Puerto Rico 126
35 Virginia 124
36 Maryland 116
37 New Jersey 113
38 Pennsylvania 111
39 Arizona 109
40 Massachusetts 100
41 District of Columbia 96
42 New York 83
43 Michigan 80
44 Rhode Island 79
45 Oregon 78
46 Connecticut 74
47 Washington 68
48 California 67
49 New Hampshire 65
50 Hawaii 61
51 Maine 25
52 Vermont 18

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,825
2 New York 1,694
3 Massachusetts 1,412
4 Connecticut 1,273
5 Louisiana 1,236
6 Rhode Island 1,087
7 Mississippi 1,065
8 District of Columbia 908
9 Arizona 800
10 Illinois 748
11 Florida 743
12 Michigan 733
13 South Carolina 708
14 Georgia 702
15 Delaware 682
16 Pennsylvania 668
17 Maryland 667
18 Texas 604
19 Indiana 584
20 Alabama 568
21 Arkansas 564
22 Nevada 555
23 North Dakota 536
24 Iowa 485
25 New Mexico 445
26 Ohio 433
27 Missouri 431
28 California 429
29 Tennessee 422
30 Minnesota 405
31 Virginia 402
32 Colorado 381
33 North Carolina 377
34 South Dakota 365
35 New Hampshire 343
36 Kentucky 307
37 Washington 307
38 Idaho 297
39 Oklahoma 295
40 Kansas 294
41 Nebraska 287
42 Wisconsin 272
43 Puerto Rico 239
44 Montana 225
45 West Virginia 222
46 Utah 169
47 Oregon 147
48 Hawaii 131
49 Maine 108
50 Wyoming 98
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 86

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 14
2 South Dakota 7
3 Arkansas 6
4 Missouri 6
5 Georgia 4
6 Florida 3
7 Indiana 3
8 Louisiana 3
9 Massachusetts 3
10 Montana 3
11 Alabama 2
12 Idaho 2
13 Illinois 2
14 Kansas 2
15 Kentucky 2
16 Minnesota 2
17 Mississippi 2
18 Oklahoma 2
19 Puerto Rico 2
20 South Carolina 2
21 Tennessee 2
22 Texas 2
23 Arizona 1
24 California 1
25 Delaware 1
26 District of Columbia 1
27 Iowa 1
28 Nebraska 1
29 Nevada 1
30 New Mexico 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Pennsylvania 1
33 Utah 1
34 Virginia 1
35 West Virginia 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Colorado 0
39 Connecticut 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Maine 0
42 Maryland 0
43 Michigan 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 New Jersey 0
46 New York 0
47 Ohio 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 170,378 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 157,514 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 153,049 3 99
Lafayette Florida 149,727 4 99
Lake Tennessee 137,115 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 45,355 251 92
Richland South Carolina 39,990 377 88
York South Carolina 22,126 1404 55
Orange California 18,468 1719 45
Pierce Washington 11,440 2412 23

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 630 784 75
Davidson Tennessee 468 1127 64
Orange California 444 1181 62
York South Carolina 342 1458 53
Pierce Washington 266 1702 45

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons